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Friday, April 26, 2024

Established Covered Calls in Las Vegas Sands Corporation

Today, a buy/write limit order was entered in Las Vegas Sands Corporation (ticker LVS) to buy 500 shares and simultaneously sell 5 Call options at the May 17th, 2024 monthly options expiration date and at the $44.50 strike price. The net debit limit price for my order was $43.78 and this order was executed when 500 shares were purchased at $45.54 and 4 May 17th, 2024 Call options were sold for $1.76 per share.  Therefore, a maximum potential time value profit of $.72 per share = [$1.76 options premium - ($45.54 stock price - $44.50 strike price)] is available for this position.  

This position uses the Covered Calls Advisor's Dividend Capture Strategy since Las Vegas Sands has an upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $.20 per share on Monday, May 6th which is prior to the May 17th options expiration date.  This is equivalent to an absolute annual dividend yield of 1.8% and an equivalent annualized dividend yield of 7.6% = [($.20/$45.54) x (365/21 days to expiration)].  This dividend is included in the detailed return-on-investment calculations below.  Either an early assignment next Friday, May 3rd (the last trading day prior to the ex-dividend date) or on the May 17th options expiration date would be desirable to the Covered Calls Advisor given the potential annualized return on investments for either outcome.  Importantly to the Covered Calls Advisor, there is no quarterly earnings report prior to the options expiration date since the next earnings report on July 17th, 2024 is two months after the May 17th options expiration date.

Despite the name "Las Vegas Sands", their casino properties are primarily in Macau.  Their current profitable growth is likely to continue for years to come and I like that they are spending capital to maintain their properties as top-rate destinations as well as for investor-friendly dividends and stock buybacks.  The average target price of the 15 analysts covering Las Vegas Sands is $62.84 (+38.0% above today's stock purchase price).  Also, Las Vegas Sands appeared in my Stock Rover Overall stock screener by meeting all 16 filter as show in this chart:

                


As shown on the table at the bottom of this post, all nine criteria of the Dividend Capture Strategy are met with this position.  Even if the Las Vegas Sands stock price declines somewhat during the next 21 days until the options expiration date, if the stock closes above the $44.50 strike price, then a very satisfactory annualized-return-on-investment of +36.3% will be achieved.  The probability that these Call options will expire in-the-money on the options expiration date was 65.2% when this position was established.   


As detailed below, two potential return-on-investment results are: 

  •  +1.6% absolute return (equivalent to +59.5% annualized return-on-investment for the next 10 days) if the stock is assigned early (on the last business day prior to the May 6th ex-dividend date); or  
  • +2.1% absolute return (equivalent to +36.3% annualized return-on-investment over the next 21 days) if the stock is assigned on the May 17th, 2024 options expiration date.

Las Vegas Sands Corporation (LVS) -- New Covered Calls Position
The buy/write transaction was:
4/26/2024 Bought 500 Las Vegas Sands shares @ $45.54
4/26/2024 Sold 5 LVS 5/17/2024 $44.50 Call options @ $1.76 per share.
Note: Implied Volatility (IV) of the Call options was at 24.3 when this position was transacted which, as preferred, is above the current VIX of 15.2.   
5/6/2024 Upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $.20 per share.

Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Las Vegas Sands Corp. Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Net Investment: $21,893.35
= ($45.54 - $1.76) * 500 shares + $3.35 commission

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$876.65
= ($1.76 * 500 shares) - $3.35 commission
(b) Dividend Income (If LVS Call options exercised early on May 3rd, 2024, the last business day prior to the May 6th ex-div date): +$0.00; or
(b) Dividend Income (If LVS stock assigned at the May 17th, 2024 options expiration): +$100.00
= ($.20 dividend per share x 500 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If Las Vegas Sand's Call options assigned early on May 6th): -$520.00
+($44.50 - $45.54) * 500 shares; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If shares assigned at $44.50 strike price at the May 17th options expiration): -$520.00
+($44.50 - $45.54) * 500 shares

1. Total Net Profit [If option exercised early (business day prior to the May 6th ex-dividend date)]: +$356.65
= (+$876.65 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$520.00 capital appreciation); or
2. Total Net Profit (If LVS's shares assigned at $44.50 at the May 17th, 2024 expiration): +$456.65
= (+$876.65 options income + $100.00 dividend income - $520.00 capital appreciation)

1. Potential Absolute Return-on-Investment [If option exercised on business day prior to ex-dividend date]: +1.6%
= +$356.65/$21,893.35
Potential Annualized Return (If option exercised early): +59.5%
= (+$356.65/$21,893.35) * (365/10 days); or
2. Potential Absolute Return-on-Investment (If LVS's shares assigned on May 17th options expiration date): +2.1%
= +$456.65/$21,893.35
Potential Annualized Return (If Las Vegas Sand's shares assigned at $44.50 at the 5/17/2024 options expiration date): +36.3%
= (+$456.65/$21,893.35) * (365/21 days)

Either outcome provides an attractive return-on-investment result for this Las Vegas Sands investment.  These returns will be achieved as long as the stock is above the $44.50 strike price at assignment.  However, if the stock declines below the strike price, the breakeven price of $43.58 ($45.54 -$1.76 -$.20) provides 4.3% downside protection below today's stock purchase price.

At least eight of the nine metrics used in the Covered Calls Advisor's Dividend Capture Strategy spreadsheet (see below) must be 'YES' prior to establishing a new Covered Calls position using the Covered Calls Advisor's Dividend Capture strategy.  As shown below, all nine criteria are achieved for this Las Vegas Sands Corporation Covered Calls position.



Thursday, April 25, 2024

Established Covered Calls Position in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Today a short-term in-the-money Covered Calls position was established in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) at the May 10th, 2024 weekly options expiration date and at the $87.00 strike price.  Three hundred TLT shares were purchased at $87.77 per share and three May 10th, 2024 $87.00 Calls were sold at $1.53 per share. The corresponding potential time value profit is $.76 per share [$1.53 Call options premium - ($87.00 strike price - $87.77 ETF purchase price)].  The probability that these Calls will be in-the-money on the May 10th options expiration date was 63.3% when this position was established.  In addition to the potential time value profit of $.76 per share, there is an upcoming monthly ex-distribution on May 1st which will be approximately $.31 per share and which is prior to the May 10th options expiration date.  

As you know, I normally prefer to establish Covered Calls using individual stocks rather than broader indices such as ETFs.  The reasons for this is described in my prior post entitled "Exploiting Our Covered Calls Investing "Edges"' (see items #2 and #3 in the article here).  Many investors are satisfied with buying-and-holding T-Bonds, but we Covered Calls investors know we can do better than the 4.78% yield currently available buying 30-year T Bonds.  This is true not only for our usual Covered Calls positions using stocks as the underlying equity, but this TLT Covered Calls position demonstrates that it is also true for Covered Calls with this conservative Treasury Bond ETF (i.e. TLT), whose potential annualized-return-on-investment (aroi) result of +30.0% at the options expiration date, as detailed below, greatly exceeds the current yield from simply owning long-term Treasury Bonds. 

As we know, bond prices move inversely (i.e. opposite) to bond yields.  Given today's GDP report showing a slowing trend in our economy, a possible lower (or at least stable) interest rate environment now seems likely.  If so, this position will achieve the return-on-investment returns detailed below. 

Two potential return-on-investment results are: (a) +0.9% absolute return (equivalent to +53.1% annualized return-on-investment for the next 6 days) if TLT is assigned early on the day prior to the May 1st, 2024 ex-distribution date; or (b) +1.2% absolute return (equivalent to +30.0% annualized return-on-investment for the next 15 days) if it is assigned at market close on the May 10th, 2024 options expiration date.  


iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) -- New Covered Calls Position 
The buy/write transaction was as follows:
4/25/2024 Bought 300 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF shares at $87.77.
4/25/2024 Sold 3 TLT May 10th, 2024 $87.00 Call options @ $1.53 per share.
5/1/2023 Estimated ex-distribution of $.31 per share.

The overall performance results (including commissions) if TLT remains in-the-money at options expiration would be as follows:
Covered Calls Net Investment: $25,874.01
= ($87.77 - $1.53) * 300 shares + $2.01 commission

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$456.99
= ($1.53 * 300 shares) - $2.01 commission
(b) Distribution Income [If TLT is assigned early on the last business day prior to the May 1st ex-distribution date: +$0.00
(b) Distribution Income [If TLT price is in-the-money (i.e. above the $87.00 strike price) and the position is assigned (i.e. closed out) at options expiration on May 10th]: +$93.00
= $.31 distribution per share x 300 TLT shares
(c) Capital Appreciation (If TLT is assigned at the $87.00 strike price either early or on the 5/10/2024 options expiration date): -$231.00
= ($87.00 strike price - $87.77 purchase price) * 300 shares

Total Net Profit:
1.  If TLT shares are assigned early on the day prior to the ex-distribution date: +$225.99
     = (+$456.99 options income +$0.00 distribution income -$231.00 capital appreciation)
2.  If TLT share price is in-the-money (i.e. above the $87.00 strike price) at options expiration: +$318.99
= (+$456.99 options income +$93.00 distribution income -$231.00 capital appreciation)

Potential Absolute Return-on-Investment: 
1. If TLT shares are assigned early on the day prior to the ex-distribution date: +0.9%
    = +$225.99/$25,874.01
2. If TLT shares are above the $87.00 strike price at the May 10th, 2024 options expiration): +1.2%
    = +$318.99/$25,874.01

Potential Annualized Return-on-Investment: 
1. If TLT shares are assigned early on the day prior to the ex-distribution date: +53.1% 
    = (+$225.99/$25,874.01) * (365/6 days)
2. If TLT shares are above the $87.00 strike price at the May 10th, 2024 options expiration): +30.0%
    = (+$318.99/$25,874.01) * (365/15 days)


Either outcome provides an attractive return-on-investment result for this iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF investment.  These returns will be achieved as long as the price is above the $87.00 strike price at assignment.  However, if the stock declines below the strike price, the breakeven price of $85.93 ($87.77 -$1.53 -$.31) provides 2.1% downside protection below today's stock purchase price.

At least eight of the nine metrics used in the Covered Calls Advisor's Dividend Capture Strategy spreadsheet (see below) must be 'YES' prior to establishing a new Covered Calls position using the Covered Calls Advisor's Dividend Capture strategy.  As shown below, eight of the nine criteria are achieved for this iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Covered Calls position.


Please email if you have any comments or questions related to this post or to anything related to the Covered Calls investing strategy.

Regards and Godspeed,
Jeff Partlow (The Covered Calls Advisor)
partlow@cox.net

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Closed Out Covered Calls Position in Globe Life Inc.

This Covered Calls position in Globe Life Inc. (ticker GL) has been a disastrous one.  My blog post when this position was originally established in late March is shown here.  A short seller issued an extensive report claiming fraudulent activities at Globe Life and as a direct result, the stock price plummeted by 53% from the closing price on April 11th of $104.92 to a closing price of $49.16 on April 12th.  In my over four decades as a Covered Calls investor, this is the first time that I've had an experience like this occur where one of the companies I was invested in was accused of fraud.  I was not surprised that the company issued a statement in reply saying that the report showed a great lack of understanding of Globe Life's business practices and was inaccurate in their accusations.  

I decided at that time to await their quarterly earnings report results and to listen to the related conference call which occurred yesterday.  They grew both revenue and earnings by high-single-digit percents which was largely in-line with analysts' expectations and they continued to defend the integrity of their business practices.  On the other hand, they have hired an independent party to study and then report their findings to Globe's management on the claims asserted by the short seller.  There is also an ongoing inquiry by the Department of Justice, the scope of which is somewhat unclear at this time.  Given these two uncertainties, both in the time duration until their conclusion as well as the specific outcomes, I feel that exiting the position today at $79.52 per share at a huge loss was a prudent decision. The stock price has already recovered about half of its original loss, but I am highly uncertain in the near term whether the stock price will continue its recovery or not.  Sometimes it is better to accept the results from a bad investment, put it behind us by closing out the position, and then moving on to other companies where we have a more bullish current outlook.          

As detailed below, the return-on-investment results for this Globe Life Inc. position was: -26.0% absolute return in 22 days (equivalent to a -431.6% annualized return-on-investment)This result will have a substantially negative effect on the overall prior year results in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio which will be reported as part of my next monthly options expiration summary report on May 17th, 2024.


Globe Life Inc. (GL) -- Closed Out Covered Calls Position
The buy/write transaction was:
3/27/2024 Bought 200 Globe Life shares @ $116.50.
3/27/2024 Sold 2 GL 4/19/2024 $110.00 Call options @ $8.70 per share.  
4/4/2024 Ex-dividend of $.24 per share.
4/19/2024 GL Calls expired deep out-of-the-money with the stock at $67.41, so 200 GL shares remained in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.
4/24/2024 Sold 200 Global Life shares at $79.52 to close out this position.
 
The overall performance results (including commissions) for this Globe Life Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Net Investment: $21,561.34
= ($116.50 - $8.70) * 200 shares + $1.34 commission

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$1,738.66
= ($8.70 * 200 shares) - $1.34 commission
(b) Dividend Income: +$48.00
= ($.24 dividend per share x 200 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (200 Globe Life shares sold at $79.52 per share): -$7,396.00
+($79.52 sales price - $116.50 purchase price) * 200 shares

Total Net Loss: -$5,609.34
= (+$1,738.66 options income +$48.00 dividend income -$7,396.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return-on-Investment: -26.0%
= -$5,609.34/$21,561.34
Annualized Return-on-Investment: -431.6%
= (-$5,609.34/$21,561.34) * (365/22 days)

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Closed Covered Calls Position in Euronet Worldwide Inc.

At last Friday's April 19th, 2024 options expiration, the Covered Calls position in Euronet Worldwide Inc. (ticker EEFT) expired with the stock price at $102.38 which was below the $105.00 strike price, so the 200 shares remained in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio. By today, the price of Euronet Worldwide shares recovered along with the overall market and the Covered Calls Advisor decided to close out the position by selling the 200 shares at $106.125 per share.

As detailed below, the return-on-investment result for this Euronet Worldwide Inc. Covered Calls position was +2.9% absolute return-on-investment in 34 days (equivalent to a +33.4% annualized return-on-investment). 


Euronet Worldwide Inc. (EEFT) -- Covered Calls Position Closed Out 

The Buy/Write transaction was as follows:
3/22/2024 Bought 200 shares of Euronet Worldwide Inc. @ $108.22 per share.  
3/22/2024 Sold 2 EEFT April 19th, 2024 $105.00 Call options @ $5.12 per share.  The Implied Volatility of these Call options was 23.3 and the Delta was 68.9 when this transaction was executed.
4/19/2024 200 Euronet Worldwide shares closed out-of-the-money so 2 Calls expired and 200 EEFT shares remain in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.
4/23/2024 200 Euronet Worldwide shares were sold at $106.125 per share to close out this Covered Calls position.

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this Euronet Worldwide Inc. Covered Calls position was as follows:
Covered Calls Net Investment: $20,621.34
= ($108.22 - $5.12) * 200 shares + $1.34 commission

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$1,022.66
= ($5.12 * 200 shares) - $1.34 commission
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (200 Euronet Worldwide Inc. shares sold at $106.125): -$419.00
+($106.125 - $108.22) * 200 shares

Total Net Profit (200 EEFT shares sold at $106.125 to close out this Covered Calls position): +$603.66
= (+$1,022.66 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$419.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return-on-Investment: +2.9%
= +$603.66/$20,621.34
Potential Annualized Return-on-Investment: +33.4%
= (+$603.66/$20,621.34) * (365/32 days)