Sunday, February 5, 2012

Best Book on Covered Calls

Three years ago, this Covered Calls Advisor blog wrote an article (See "Four for Your Bookshelf") that recommended 4 books that deserve a permanent place on any investor's bookshelf. One of those books was "New Insights on Covered Call Writing" by Lehman & McMillan, a book that the Covered Calls Advisor believed was the single best book available at that time dedicated primarily to covered calls investing.

Fortunately, the authors have now released a 2nd Edition of this book titled "Options for Volatile Markets". This book is a significant improvement over the first edition and should definitely be obtained and read carefully by anyone with an interest in covered calls.

The Covered Calls Advisor has read the book twice and also written a book review (published at Amazon.com), which for your convenience is duplicated here:

4.0 out of 5 stars Much to Praise -- But Also a Major Flaw, January 11, 2012
By Jeff Partlow (Annandale, VA United States)

This review is from: Options for Volatile Markets: Managing Volatility and Protecting Against Catastrophic Risk (Bloomberg Financial) (Hardcover)

PRAISE: First and foremost, I confidently assert that this book is the single best resource now available that is focused primarily on the subject of covered calls investing. To those who have read the 1st Edition of this book (titled "New Insights on Covered Call Writing"), this 2nd Edition is a substantial improvement. It is written with great clarity throughout and is worthwhile reading for anyone (from novice to expert) interested in covered calls and other closely-related hedging strategies. Some of the best features are:
1. Excellent definitions and explanations of options terminology; and especially insightful discussions of important topics such as time value decay, skews, implied volatility, and historic volatility.
2. A very good explanation of why a fear common to many newbie covered calls investors, namely early exercise, is largely unwarranted.
3. Thorough discussions related to position management (the authors call this "follow-up actions"), including various types of "rolling".
4. The section on "Basic Tax Rules for Options" is the best concise description I've seen anywhere on this topic.
5. Why it is critically important that investors develop knowledge of how "risk" and "volatility" should inform our investment decision-making process. Consideration of specific "traps" to be avoided is another especially strong feature of this book.
6. For investors interested in modifications to the basic covered calls strategy, hedging with protective puts, collars, and option spreads are also presented. Thankfully, the authors present these alternatives in a well-balanced manner, taking time to present both the pros and cons of each strategy.

CONCERNS:
1. I share the concern of some other reviewers that the revised title of this 2nd Edition is overly generic and therefore somewhat misleading. A more appropriate title would be something like "Covered Calls and Related Hedging Strategies".
2. Figure 6.4 is a very nice, visual way to portray the "Behavioral Impact of Covered Call Writing". But the stock price ranges are incorrect: "Good decision offset..." should be <$47, etc., etc.
3. Weekly options now exist for over 100 equities/ETFs and they continue to grow in both availability and popularity. Including commentary on the possible role of weeklies in the several instances when expiration timeframes are addressed throughout the book would definitely enhance the readers' overall understanding.

MAJOR FLAW: On pages 162-164, the authors present results from their own study of four strategies during 2007-2010. The results are summarized in Table 8.3. Unfortunately, there are errors in the "Total Period" column which will cause naïve readers to falsely conclude that the collar strategy provides substantially better returns than the other three strategies. Two of these errors are:
1. The actual overall performance of SPY over these 3 3/4 years was -13.1%, not -17.3%.
2. The +15.2% return claimed for the collar strategy defies basic common sense when compared with the returns presented for its related component parts, that is a covered calls return of +3.1% in combination with a put hedge return of -5.2%. We can also conclude that the +15.2% is also clearly inaccurate from a different viewpoint, since a time-weighted average of the flat period (+5.8%), down period(+0.4%), and up period (+16.7%) is much closer to +8.4% -- but definitely not +15.2%.
This major flaw should be corrected prior to the next printing of this book. Further, to improve the validity of the results, the current 3 3/4 years backtest should be extended to a more rigorous minimum of 20 years.
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Note: The overall rating of 4 Stars will be upgraded to 5 Stars if the authors correct the indicated problems in a subsequent printing of this book.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Early Assignment -- Xilinx, Inc.

Overnight, the Covered Calls Advisor received email notification from my broker that the 3 call options in Xilinx, Inc.(Ticker Symbol XLNX) were exercised early and therefore the 300 shares assigned (sold). This early exercise by the call options owner was done yesterday (Friday), which was the final trading day prior to next Monday's ex-dividend date (with a $.19 dividend from Xilinx).

As explained in this post (See "Establish Xilinx Inc. Covered Calls"), when this covered calls position was established 10 calendar days ago, the Covered Calls Advisor was hoping for this early exercise outcome since it provides the highest possible annualized return-on-investment result for this investment. As detailed below, this early exercise resulted in a +20.0% annualized ROI, slightly better than the +18.2% that would have been achieved if the early exercise had not occurred early, but instead if the stock remained above the $34.00 strike price and would therefore be assigned two weeks from now on the February 17th options expiration date. In short, it is better to earn a $.30 profit per share in 12 days (average of $.0250/day) than a $.49 profit ($.30 options premium plus $.19 dividend income) in 26 days (average of $.0188/day).

Often (as is true in this instance), when the extrinsic value (i.e. time value) remaining in the call options is less than the dividend amount, the options owner is enticed to exercise on the day prior to the ex-div date in order to obtain the stock shares and to capture the dividend payment. In this instance the Xilinx dividend payment is $.19 per share, which is greater than the current $.06 extrinsic value [$2.98 current Asked Price - ($36.92 current stock price minus $34.00 strike price)]. In essence, the options owner was enticed to exercise early. Fortunately for the Covered Calls Advisor, the early exercise immediately closes out the covered calls position and the full remaining $.06 extrinsic value is immediately captured as profit. This profit along with the cash from the sale of the 300 shares of Xilinx will be available as early as market opening on Monday morning for establishing any new covered calls investment in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.

The transactions history was as follows:
01/25/2012 Bought 300 XLNX @ $35.30
01/25/2012 Sold 3 XLNX Feb2012 $34.00 Calls @ $1.60
02/04/2012 3 XLNX Feb2012 $34.00 Call Options Exercised Early and thus 300 shares of XLNX sold at $34.00.
Note: Upon Friday's market close, the price of XLNX was $36.92 and the associated Ask price of the call options was $2.98.

The overall performance result (including commissions) for the Xilinx, Inc.(XLNX) transactions was as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $10,598.95
= ($35.30*300+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$468.80
= ($1.60*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: $0.00 Note: Call options exercised on day prior to Feb 6th ex-div date.
(c) Capital Appreciation (Stock assigned at $34.00): -$398.95
+($34.00-$35.30)*300 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit: +$69.85
= (+$468.80 +$0.00 -$398.95)

Absolute Return (Options assigned early -- on day prior to Feb 6th ex-div date):
+0.7% = +$69.85/$10,598.95
Annualized Return: +20.0%
= (+$69.85/$10,598.95)*(365/12 days)

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Continuation Transaction -- Apple Inc.

Today, a decision was made to retain the 100 shares held in Apple Inc.(AAPL) and to establish a Feb2011 covered call position. The decision by the Covered Calls Advisor to hold the long AAPL position uncovered after the Dec2012 option expired was fortuitous. The stock was at $381.02 at Dec2012 options expiration and has increased to $456.91 as of today when this covered call position was re-established. The dramatic increase in Apple's stock price resulted primarily from Apple's outstanding 1st quarter earnings report issued in January.

The detailed transactions as well as some possible results for this investment are as follows:

Apple Inc.(AAPL) -- Continuation
The transactions history is as follows:
09/19/2011 Bought 100 shares AAPL at $396.544
09/19/2011 Sold 1 AAPL Oct2011 $410 Call Option @ $10.15
10/22/2011 Oct2011 option expired.
Note: the AAPL price was $392.87 at option expiration.
10/24/2011 Sold 1 AAPL Nov2011 $410 Call Option @ $7.20
Note: the price of AAPL was $399.10 when the option was sold.
11/19/2011 Nov2011 AAPL options expired.
11/30/2011 Sold 1 AAPL Dec2011 $400.00 Call @ $4.40
Note: the price of AAPL was $392.94 today when this call option was sold.
12/17/2011 Dec2011 AAPL options expired.
Note: the price of AAPL was $381.02 upon Dec2012 options expiration.
2/1/2012 Sold 1 AAPL Feb2012 $465 Call @ $3.85
Note: the price of AAPL was $456.91 today when this call option was sold.

Two possible performance results(including commissions) for this AAPL position are as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $39,663.35
= ($396.544*100+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$2,521.20
= (100*($10.15+$7.20+$4.40+$3.85) - 4*$9.70 commissions)
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock price unchanged at $456.91): +$6,027.65
= ($456.91-$396.544)*100 - $8.95 commissions
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock assigned at $465.00 at expiration): +$6,836.65
= ($465.00-$396.544)*100 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If stock price unchanged at $456.91): +$8,548.85
= (+$2,521.20 +$0.00 +$6,027.65)
Total Net Profit (If stock assigned at $465.00): +$9,357.85
= (+$2,521.20 +$0.00 +$6,836.65)

1. Absolute Return (If stock price unchanged at $456.91 at Feb2012 options expiration): +21.6%
= +$8,548.85/$39,663.35
Annualized Return If Unchanged (ARIU): +51.8%
= (+$8,548.85/$39,663.35)*(365/152 days)

2. Absolute Return (If stock assigned at $465.00 strike price at Feb2012 options expiration): +23.6%
= +$9,357.85/$39,663.35
Annualized Return If Assigned (ARIA): +56.7%
= (+$9,357.85/$39,663.35)*(365/152 days)

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Returns -- Through January 2012

1. January 2012 Year-to-Date Results:

The Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio (CCAP) is off to a great start in 2012. CCAP outperformed the benchmark Russell 3000 index by 3.95% (+9.05% minus +5.10%). This outperformance occurred primarily because of the large increases achieved for the month in the CCAP's two largest positions: Apple Inc. increased by +11.9% and iShares MSCI China ETF increased by +10.3%.

The financial results were as follows:

CCAP Absolute Return (Jan 1st through Jan 31st, 2012) = +9.05%
($320,198.62-$293,634.14)/$293,634.14

Benchmark Russell 3000(IWV) Absolute Return(Jan 1st through Jan 31st, 2012) = +5.10%
($77.96-$74.18)/$74.18

As a reminder, the Covered Calls Advisor uses a bottom-line performance measure to determine overall portfolio investment performance results -- it is called 'Total Account Value Return Percent'. Here's an example to aid understanding of how the overall portfolio performance is determined: If the total CCAP portfolio value was $100,000 at the beginning of the calendar year and $110,000 at the end of that year (and with no deposits or withdrawals having been made), then the 'Total Account Value Return Percent' would be +10.0% [($110,000-$100,000)/$100,000]*100.


2. Prior Years Results:

This Covered Calls Advisor blog began in September 2007. The performance results for 2007 through 2011 is summarized as follows:

This table shows that the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio has outperformed the Russell 3000 benchmark by a total of 16.94% over the 4.3 years from the start of this blog in Sepember 2007 and the end of 2011. As shown, the corresponding average compound annual return-on-investment outperformance has averaged +3.85% per year. This average is within the Covered Calls Advisor's expected range of +3% to +5% average annual outperformance for long-term results achieved from a well-managed covered calls investing program.

Also as a reminder, the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio is not identical to the advisor's personal portfolio. However, it does provide a comparable overall portfolio return result since all equities in the CCAP are also held in this advisor's personal portfolio. To ensure comparability, all transaction dates and transaction prices herein are identical to those that were established in the Covered Calls Advisor's personal portfolio. The primary difference between the two accounts is the total number of shares held for each equity. This approach is used to preserve the confidentiality of the total value of the Covered Call Advisor's personal portfolio.

As shown in the right sidebar near the top of this page, the Covered Calls Advisor's current Overall Market Meter rating is "SLIGHTLY BULLISH". The corresponding investing strategy is to, on-average, sell 2% out-of-the-money covered calls for the nearest expiration month.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to submit them -- they are always welcomed. Click the 'comments' link below. If you prefer confidential communications, my email address is listed at the top-right sidebar of this blog site.

Regards and Godspeed,
Jeff

Monday, January 30, 2012

Establish ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds ETF Covered Calls

A new covered calls position was established today in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio(CCAP) with the purchase of ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (Symbol TBT) covered calls as follows:

Established ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) Covered Calls for Feb2012:
01/30/2012 Bought 300 TBT @ $18.34
01/30/2012 Sold 3 TBT Feb2012 $19.00 Calls @ $.29
Note: the price of TBT was $18.34 when these call options were sold.

This investment corresponds to the Covered Calls Advisor's thesis that interest rates are bottoming. An out-of-the-money covered calls position in TBT will benefit if there is any increase in long-term Treasury Bond yields. Some readers might ask: "Why establish an out-of-the-money position in an inverse ETF instead of simply an in-the-money position in a direct investment (such as TLT)?"
My answer is: "An out-of-the-money position in the inverse TBT ETF enables the possibility of capital appreciation in the underlying ETF if interest rates are bottoming and begin to trend somewhat higher. This establishes the possibility of a substantially higher return-on-investment result compared with an in-the-money TLT position (since in-the-money covered calls positions eliminate the possibility of capital appreciation in the underlying equity).

Although there are unlimited outcomes, two possible overall performance results(including commissions) for this ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) position are as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $5,510.95
= ($18.34*300+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$75.80
= ($.29*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If price of TBT is unchanged at $18.34): -$8.95
= ($18.34-$18.34)*300 - $8.95 commissions
(c) Capital Appreciation (If TBT above $19.00 at Feb2012 expiration): +$189.05
+($19.00-$18.34)*300 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit(If TBT unchanged at $18.34): +$66.85
= (+$75.80 +$0.00 -$8.95)
Total Net Profit(If TBT above $19.00 at Feb2012 options expiration): +$264.85
= (+$75.80 +$0.00 +$189.05)

1. Absolute Return if Unchanged at $18.34: +1.2%
= +$66.85/$5,510.95
Annualized Return If Unchanged (ARIU): +23.3%
= (+$66.85/$5,510.95)*(365/19 days)

2. Absolute Return (If TBT above $19.00 at Feb2012 options expiration): +4.8%
= +$264.85/$5,510.95
Annualized Return (If TBT above $19.00 at expiration): +92.3%
= (+$264.85/$5,510.95)*(365/19 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $18.05 ($18.34 - $.29).
Using the Black-Scholes Options Pricing Model in the Schwab Hypothetical Options Pricing calculator, the resulting probability of making a profit (if held until Feb2012 options expiration) for this Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.(HIG) covered calls position is 60.8%. This compares with a probability of profit of 51.6% for a buy-and-hold of the Hartford over the same time period.

The 'crossover price' at expiration is $19.29 ($19.00 + $.29).
This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold Hartford stock until Feb 17, 2012 (the Feb2012 options expiration date) rather than holding the covered calls position. The Options Pricing Model indicates that the probability that this will occur is 26.5%.