At 1:15 PM ET, after the report in the Wall Street Journal about the merger talks between Cigna and Humana caused a persistent sharp decline of over 6.0% in the stock of Cigna, I purchased one hundred shares at $267.58 and simultaneously sold 1 December 15th, 2023 Call option at $5.50 per share at the $270.00 strike price. This strike price is slightly out-of-the-money which is consistent with the guideline of selling Calls between 3.0% below and 2.0% above the strike price when my Overall Market Meter is "Neutral" (as it is now). I believe this merger is unlikely to occur and that Cigna's current price represents an attractive valuation at an estimated P/E ratio of only 10.8 based on this fiscal year's EPS estimates (which is well below its prior 5-year average P/E of 13.4). In addition, Cigna has won Centene's business beginning in 2024 which bodes well for further earnings increases in 2024.
1. The Cigna Group (CI) -- New Covered Call PositionThe potential time value profit for this Cigna Covered Call position is $5.50 per share and in addition there is an upcoming quarterly ex-dividend income potential per share of $1.23 (annual dividend yield of 1.7%) next Tuesday (December 5th, 2023). So, the potential return-on-investment results detailed below occurs if the stock price rebounds upward and the Covered Calls position is in-the-money (and therefore assigned) on the Dec. 15th options expiration date. Furthermore, Cigna has exceeded analysts' EPS estimates every quarter for the past 3 years and the current average target price of Wall Street analysts that cover Cigna is $347.81 (+30.0% above today's purchase price).
The buy/write transaction today was as follows:
11/29/2023 Bought 100 Cigna Corp. shares @ $267.58
11/29/2023 Sold 1 Cigna 9/15/2023 $270.00 Call option @ $5.50 per share.
12/5/2023 Upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $1.23 per share
A possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Covered Call position if assigned on the options expiration date is as follows:
Covered Call Net Investment: $26,208.67
= ($267.58 - $5.50) * 100 shares + $.67 commission
Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$549.33
= ($5.50 * 100 shares) - $.67 commission
(b) Dividend Income (If Cigna stock assigned at the Dec. 15th, 2023 expiration): $123.00
= ($1.23 dividend per share x 100 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If shares assigned at $270.00 strike price at the 12/15/2023 options expiration date): +242.00
+($270.00 - $267.58) * 100 shares
2. Halliburton Company (HAL) -- New Covered Calls Position
The buy/write transaction was:
11/29/2023 Bought 500 Halliburton Co. shares @ $37.19
11/29/2023 Sold 5 HAL 12/15/2023 $36.00 Call options @ $1.64
12/6/2023 Upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $.16 per share
Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Halliburton Co. Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Cost Basis: $17,778.35
= ($37.19 - $1.64) * 500 shares + $3.35 commissions
Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$816.65
= ($1.64 * 500 shares) - $3.35 commission
(b) Dividend Income (If option exercised early on the last trading day prior to the Dec. 6th ex-div date): +$0.00; or
(b) Dividend Income (If Halliburton shares assigned at the 12/15/2023, 2023 expiration date): +$80.00
= ($.16 dividend per share x 500 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HAL assigned early on Dec. 6th, 2023): -$595.00
+($36.00 - $37.19) * 500 shares; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HAL assigned at the $36.00 strike price at the 12/15/2023 options expiration date): -$595.00
+($36.00 -$37.19) * 500 shares
Covered Call Net Investment: $26,208.67
= ($267.58 - $5.50) * 100 shares + $.67 commission
Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$549.33
= ($5.50 * 100 shares) - $.67 commission
(b) Dividend Income (If Cigna stock assigned at the Dec. 15th, 2023 expiration): $123.00
= ($1.23 dividend per share x 100 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If shares assigned at $270.00 strike price at the 12/15/2023 options expiration date): +242.00
+($270.00 - $267.58) * 100 shares
Total Net Profit (If stock shares assigned at $270.00 strike price at the 12/15/2023 expiration): +$914.33
= (+$549.33 options income +$123.00 dividend income + $242.00 capital appreciation)
Potential Absolute Return-on-Investment: +3.5%
= +$914.33/$26,208.67
Potential Annualized Return-on-Investment: +79.6%
= (+$914.33/$26,208.67) * (365/16 days)
2. Halliburton Company (HAL) -- New Covered Calls Position
The buy/write transaction was:
11/29/2023 Bought 500 Halliburton Co. shares @ $37.19
11/29/2023 Sold 5 HAL 12/15/2023 $36.00 Call options @ $1.64
12/6/2023 Upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $.16 per share
Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Halliburton Co. Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Cost Basis: $17,778.35
= ($37.19 - $1.64) * 500 shares + $3.35 commissions
Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$816.65
= ($1.64 * 500 shares) - $3.35 commission
(b) Dividend Income (If option exercised early on the last trading day prior to the Dec. 6th ex-div date): +$0.00; or
(b) Dividend Income (If Halliburton shares assigned at the 12/15/2023, 2023 expiration date): +$80.00
= ($.16 dividend per share x 500 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HAL assigned early on Dec. 6th, 2023): -$595.00
+($36.00 - $37.19) * 500 shares; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HAL assigned at the $36.00 strike price at the 12/15/2023 options expiration date): -$595.00
+($36.00 -$37.19) * 500 shares
1. Total Net Profit [If option exercised on Dec. 5th, 2023 (last business day prior to the Dec. 6th ex-dividend date)]: +$221.65
= (+$816.65 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$595.00 capital appreciation); or
2. Total Net Profit (If Halliburton shares assigned at $36.00 strike price at its Dec 15th, 2023 expiration): +$301.65
= (+$816.65 +$80.00 dividend income -$595.00)
1. Absolute Return-on-Investment [If HAL options exercised on the last business day prior to ex-dividend date]: +1.2%
= +$221.65/$17,778.35
Annualized Return-on-Investment (If option exercised early): +65.0%
= (+$221.65/$17,778.35) * (365/7 days); or
2. Absolute Return-on-Investment (If HAL shares assigned at $36.00 at the December 15th, 2023 options expiration): +1.7%
= +$301.65/$17,778.35
Annualized Return-on-Investment (If Halliburton stock assigned at $36.00 strike price at the Dec. 15th, 2023 expiration date): +38.7%
= (+$301.65/$17,778.35) * (365/16 days)