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Friday, February 3, 2023

Established Covered Calls Position in iShares China Large-Cap ETF

A Covered Calls position was established this afternoon in iShares China Large-Cap ETF (ticker FXI) with a February 17th, 2023 options expiration date.   One thousand shares of iShares China Large-Cap ETF were purchased at $31.10 and ten February 17th, 2023 Call options were sold at the $30.00 strike price at $1.52 per share--a net debit transaction of $29.58 per share which provides a $.42 per share time value profit potential.  Covered Calls and Cash-Secured Puts are normally synthetically equivalent positions when transacted at the same time and at the same strike price and expiration date.  The Covered Calls position was selected since the $.42 time value in the Covered Calls was significantly greater than the $.34 time value in the comparable Puts.

The Implied Volatility of these Calls was 33.9 and the Delta was 70.0 when this transaction was executed.  A moderately in-the-money strike price was selected given my current Slightly Bearish Overall Market Meter and its accompanying guideline that Covered Call positions be established at between 2% and 5% in-the-money and with short-term (i.e. one month or less) option expiration dates.  This position qualifies in both regards since the $30.00 strike price is 3.7% in-the-money and the 15 days to the options expiration date is within the preferred one-month maximum.

I concur with many economists and Wall Street analysts who expect China's stock market to outperform so-called "developed" markets this year.  China's central economic policy is loosening while major developed markets like the U.S., Europe, and Japan are tightening.  Furthermore, the apparent (though slow) re-opening from China's Covid lockdown policy will further benefit their economy.  Also importantly, FXI's market valuation metrics are very attractive with a current P/E of 8.6 and a P/Book of 1.1 when compared to an S&P 500 P/E of 19.1 and P/Book of 3.9.  It seems very likely that Emerging Markets (including China specifically) have a good chance of outperforming U.S. market benchmarks this year.  From a technical perspective, the 2-day Relative Strength Index, RSI(2) was substantially oversold at 13.4 when this position was established. 

Fortunately, the Implied Volatility of  FXI options are significantly higher than those of a common U.S. market benchmark like the S&P 500 (i.e. SPY).  For example, the 2/17/2023 $30.00 Calls I sold today had an Implied Volatility of 33.9 while at the same time the Implied Volatility of comparable SPY Calls was only 21.2 -- so FXI provides a significantly higher potential annualized-return-on-investment than that of SPY.  In addition, FXI options are very liquid (even in weekly options) so it is likely I will continue to often establish approximately bi-weekly Covered Calls in FXI in upcoming weeks this year.  Finally, the fact that investing in China-based companies improves the diversification of the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio appeals to me.  In short, it serves as a counterbalance to my normal home country bias.  

As detailed below, a potential return-on-investment result is +1.4% absolute return (equivalent to +34.0% annualized return for the next 15 days) if the iShares China Large-Cap ETF share price is in-the-money (i.e. above the $30.00 strike price) and therefore assigned on the February 17th, 2023 options expiration date.

 
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) -- New Covered Calls Position 
The Buy/Write transaction was as follows:
2/3/2023 Bought 1,000 shares of iShares China Large-Cap ETF @ $31.10 per share 
2/3/2023 Sold 10 FXI Feb 17th, 2023 $30.00 Call options @ $1.52 per share

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) for this iShares China Large-Cap ETF Covered Calls position is as follows:
FXI Covered Calls Net Investment: $29,586.70
= ($31.10 - $1.52) * 1,000 shares + $6.70 commission

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$1,513.30
= ($1.52 * 1,000 shares) - $6.70 commission
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If 1,000 iShares China Large-Cap ETF shares assigned at $30.00 strike price at expiration): -$1,100.00
+($30.00 - $31.10) * 1,000 shares

Total Net Profit Potential (If 1,000 iShares China Large-Cap ETF shares assigned at $30.00 strike price at expiration): +$413.30
= (+$1,513.30 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$1,100.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return-on-Investment Potential: +1.4%
= +$413.30/$29,586.70
Annualized Return-on-Investment Potential: +34.0%
= (+$413.30/$29,586.70) * (365/15 days)