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Friday, March 15, 2019

Covered Calls Established in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and Boeing Co.

Today, a Covered Calls position was established in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (ticker symbol BMY) with an April 18, 2019 expiration and at the $46.00 strike price.  This position has an expected upcoming quarterly ex-dividend on April 4th of $.41 per share, so the potential return for this position, as detailed below, includes the possibility of early exercise since the ex-dividend is prior to the April 18th, 2019 options expiration date.  Also, quarterly earnings will be reported after the options expiration date.  Given the Covered Calls Advisor's current Overall Market Meter indicator of Slightly Bearish, an in-the-money Covered Calls position was established. 

As detailed below, a potential return-on-investment result is +1.7% absolute return (equivalent to +30.9% annualized return for the next 20 days) if the stock is assigned early (last trading day prior to April 4th ex-date); OR +2.6% absolute return (equivalent to +27.1% annualized return over the next 35 days) if the stock is assigned on the April 18th options expiration date.


1. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) -- New Covered Calls Position
Although unlikely, if the current time value (i.e. extrinsic value) of $.77 = [$3.85 options premium - ($49.08 stock price - $46.00 strike price)] remaining in the ten short Call options decays substantially (down to about $.10 or less) by April 3rd (the last trading day prior to the ex-dividend date), there is a possibility that the Call options owner would exercise early and therefore call the 1,000 Bristol-Myers shares away to capture the dividend payment.

The buy/write transaction was:
03/15/2019 Bought 1,000 Bristol-Myers shares @ $49.08
03/15/2019 Sold 10 BMY 4/18/2019 $46.00 Call options @ $3.85
Note: the Open Interest in these Call options was 1,450 contracts (sufficiently liquid for a tight bid/ask price spread) and the Implied Volatility was 36.4 when this transaction was executed.
04/04/2019 Upcoming quarterly ex-dividend of $.41 per share

Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Bristol-Myers Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Cost Basis: $45,241.65
= ($49.08 - $3.85) * 1,000 shares + $11.65 commissions

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$3,850.00
= ($3.85*1,000 shares)
(b) Dividend Income (If option exercised early on Apr 3rd, the business day prior to Apr 4th ex-div date): +$0.00; or
(b) Dividend Income (If Bristol-Myers shares assigned at Apr 18th, 2018 expiration): +$410.00
= ($.41 dividend per share x 1,000 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (If BMY assigned early on Apr 3rd): -$3,084.95
+($46.00 -$49.08)*1,000 shares - $4.95 commissions; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If BMY assigned at $46.00 strike price at options expiration): -$3,084.95
+($46.00-$49.08)*1,000 shares - $4.95 commissions

1. Total Net Profit [If option exercised on Apr 3rd (business day prior to Apr 4th ex-dividend date)]: +$765.05
= (+$3,850.00 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$3,084.95 capital appreciation); or
2. Total Net Profit (If Bristol-Myers shares assigned at $46.00 at Apr 18, 2019 expiration): +$1,175.05
= (+$3,850.00 options income +$410.00 dividend income -$3,084.95 capital appreciation)

1. Absolute Return [If BMY option exercised on Apr 3rd (business day prior to ex-dividend date)]: +1.7%
= +$765.05/$45,241.65
Annualized Return (If option exercised early): +30.9%
= (+$765.05/$45,241.65)*(365/20 days); or
2. Absolute Return (If Bristol-Myers shares assigned at $46.00 at Apr 18, 2019 expiration): +2.6%
= +$1,175.05/$45,241.65
Annualized Return (If BMY stock assigned at $46.00 at Apr 18, 2018 expiration): +27.1%
= (+$1,175.05/$45,241.65)*(365/35 days)

Either outcome would provide an excellent return-on-investment result.  These returns will be achieved as long as the stock is above the $46.00 strike price at assignment.  If the stock declines below the strike price, the breakeven price of $44.82 ($49.08 -$3.85 -$.41) provides 8.7% downside protection below today's purchase price.

The Covered Calls Advisor has established a set of eleven criteria to evaluate potential Covered Calls using a dividend capture strategy.  The minimum threshold desired to establish a position is that at least nine of these eleven criteria must be achieved.  As shown in the table below, all of the eleven criteria are achieved for this Bristol-Myers Covered Calls position.



2. Boeing Co. (BA) -- New Covered Call Position
A Covered Call position was established on Wednesday in Boeing Co. (ticker symbol BA) with an April 18th, 2019 expiration and at the $350.00 strike price.  1st quarter earnings will not be reported until April 24th which is after the options expiration date.  Not surprisingly, Boeing's stock has plummeted as a direct result of the Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airlines disaster.  This situation has also been accompanied by a spike upward in the implied volatility of its options.  The April $350.00 Calls were at 42.5, a very high historical level for Boeing's options.   I am confident that Boeing will determine and resolve the issues with this plane in a responsible way, including compensating carriers for their lost revenue during while their planes are grounded.  Given Boeing's excellent current plane orders backlog of 6+ years, I expect minimal order cancellations since carriers will not want to leave their spot in the queue.  But given the heightened uncertainty of Boeing's near-term stock price outlook as well as the Covered Calls Advisor's current Overall Market Meter indicator of Slightly Bearish, a conservative, moderately in-the-money Covered Call position was established. 

As detailed below, a potential return-on-investment result is +2.9% absolute return (equivalent to +28.1% annualized return for the next 37 days) if the stock is assigned on the April 18th options expiration date.  

The buy/write transaction was:
03/13/2019 Bought 100 Boeing shares @ $375.72
03/13/2019 Sold 1 Boeing 04/18/2019 $350.00 Call option @ $35.47
Note: the Open Interest in the Apr 18th $350.00 Calls was sufficiently liquid at 641 contracts.

A potential overall performance result (including commissions) for this Boeing Co. Covered Call position is as follows:
Covered Calls Cost Basis: $34,030.62
= ($375.72 - $35.47) *100 + $5.62 commission

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$3,547.00
= ($35.47*100 shares)
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If BA shares assigned at $350.00 strike price at options expiration): -$2,576.95
+($350.00-$375.72)*100 shares - $4.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If assigned at $350.00 at Apr 18th, 2019 expiration): +$970.05
= (+$3,547.00 option income +$0.00 dividend income -$2,576.95 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return (If Boeing shares assigned at $350.00 at Apr 18th, 2019 expiration): +2.9%
= +$970.05/$34,030.62
Annualized Return (If assigned at $350.00 at Apr 18th, 2019 expiration): +28.1%
= (+$970.05/$34,030.62)*(365/37 days)