Today, the Covered Calls Advisor established a new 100% Cash-Secured Puts position in Hartford Financial Services Group (Symbol HIG) with an Apr2012 expiration.The transaction was as follows:
03/23/2012 Sold 3 Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) Apr2012 $21.00 Put Options @ $.67
Note: the price of HIG was $21.29 today when these Puts were sold.
The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and some potential results shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.
A possible overall performance results(including commissions) for this Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) transaction would be as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $6,300.00
= $21.00*300
Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$189.80
= ($.67*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HIG above $21.00 at Apr2012 expiration): +$0.00
= ($21.00-$21.00)*300
Total Net Profit(If HIG above $21.00 at Apr2012 options expiration): +$189.80
= (+$189.80 +$0.00 +$0.00)
Absolute Return (If HIG above $21.00 at Apr2012 options expiration and Put options thus expire worthless): +3.0%
= +$189.80/$6,300.00
Annualized Return (If stock price above $21.00 at expiration): +36.7%
= (+$189.80/$6,300.00)*(365/30 days)
The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $20.33 ($21.00 - $.67).
Using the Black-Scholes Options Pricing Model in the Schwab Hypothetical Options Pricing calculator, the resulting probability of making a profit (if held until Apr2012 options expiration) for this Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) cash-secured Puts position is 69.9%. This compares with a probability of profit of 51.2% for a buy-and-hold of HIG over the same time period.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $21.67 ($21.00 + $.67).
This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold HIG until Apr 17, 2012 (the Apr21st 2012 options expiration date) rather than holding the short Put options. The probability of exceeding this crossover price at expiration is 43.7%.
