Thursday, October 31, 2013

Established Holly Frontier Corporation Covered Calls -- Example of Early Assignment or Dividend Capture Strategy

Today, a new covered calls position was established in Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (Ticker Symbol AEM) with a Dec2013 expiration and at the $27.50 strike price. The transactions are as follows:

10/31/2013 Bought 600 AEM shares @ $29.086
10/31/2013 Sold 6 AEM Dec2013 $27.50 Call Options @ $2.72
Note: the price of AEM was $29.20 today when these options were sold.
11/27/2013 Ex-dividend of $.22 per share

This covered calls investment is a strategic one that explicitly considers the upcoming quarterly dividend of $.22 with an ex-dividend date of November 27th.  Although unlikely, if the current time value (i.e. extrinsic value) of $1.134 [$2.72 option premium - ($29.086 stock price - $27.50 strike price)] remaining in the short call option decays to less than $.22 by November 26th (the day prior to the ex-div date), then there is a possibility that the call options owner will exercise early and will call the stock away to capture the dividend. As shown below, two potential returns for this position are:
If Early Assignment: +3.8% absolute return (equivalent to +51.8% annualized return for the next 27 days) if the stock is assigned early (day prior to Nov 27th ex-div date); OR
If Dividend Capture:  +4.6% absolute return (equivalent to +32.2% annualized return over the next 52 days) if the stock is assigned at Dec 2013 expiration on December 20th.

As is often the case, early assignment provides a higher annualized return, so this is the Covered Calls Advisor's preferred outcome; but either outcome would provide a very good return.  These returns will be achieved as long as the stock is above the $27.50 strike price at assignment -- a nice 4.7% of downside protection.  Alternatively, if the stock declines below the strike price, the breakeven price of $26.146 ($29.086-$.22-$2.72) provides a very substantial 9.4% downside protection. 

In summary, this covered calls investment provides a very nice annualized ROI potential for such a conservative (hedged with substantial downside protection and the next earnings announcement is after the December options expiration date) investment. 

Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Agnico Eagle(AEM) covered calls position are as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $17,460.55
= ($29.086*600+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$1,618.55
= ($2.72*600 shares) - $13.45 commissions
(b) Dividend Income (If option exercised early on day prior to Nov 27th ex-div date): +$0.00
(b) Dividend Income (If stock assigned at Dec2013 expiration): +$132.00 = ($.22 dividend per share x 600 shares); or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock assigned early on Nov 26th): -$949.75
+($27.50-$29.086)*600 - $8.95 commissions; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock assigned at $27.50 at Dec2013 expiration): -$949.75
+($27.50-$29.086)*600 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If option exercised on day prior to Nov 27th ex-div date): +$668.80
= (+$1,618.55 +$0.00 -$949.75); or
Total Net Profit (If stock assigned at $27.50 at Dec2013 expiration): +$800.80
= (+$1,618.55 +$132.00 -$949.75)

1. Absolute Return (If option exercised on day prior to Nov 27th ex-div date): +3.8%
= +$668.80/$17,460.55
Annualized Return (If option exercised early): +51.8%
= (+$668.80/$17,460.55)*(365/27 days); OR

2. Absolute Return (If stock assigned at $27.50 at Dec2013 expiration): +4.6%
= +$800.80/$17,460.55
Annualized Return (If stock assigned): +32.2%
= (+$800.80/$17,460.55)*(365/52 days);

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Established iShares MSCI China ETF Covered Calls

Yesterday, a new covered calls position was established in iShares MSCI China ETF  (Ticker Symbol FXI).  This FXI position was established at the $36.00 strike price and with a Nov2013 expiration. As detailed below, this investment will provide a +1.5% absolute return in 23 days (which is equivalent to a +23.1% annualized return) if FXI closes at or above $36.00 at options expiration on Nov 15th.  The current Greek value of Delta for this option of 58.1% provides a good estimate of the probability that the stock price will be above the $36.00 strike price at Nov2013 options expiration. Thus, the resulting expected value of the annualized ROI for this investment is +13.4% = (+23.1%x 58.1%).

The details of the associated transactions and a potential return-on-investment result are as follows:

1. iShares MSCI China ETF (FXI)
The transactions were as follows:
10/25/2013 Bought 600 FXI shares @ $36.40
10/25/2013 Sold 6 FXI Nov2013 $36.00 Call Options @ $.95

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) for these iShares MSCI China ETF covered calls is as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $21,848.95
= ($36.40*600+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$566.55
= 600*$.95 - $13.45 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If FXI assigned at $36.00) = -$248.95
= ($36.00-$36.40)*600 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If FXI assigned at $36.00): +$317.60
= (+$566.55 +$0.00 -$248.95)

Absolute Return if Assigned (at $36.00): +1.5%
= +$317.60/$21,848.95
Annualized Return If Assigned (ARIA): +23.1%
= (+$317.60/$21,848.95)*(365/23 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $35.45 ($36.40 - $.95), which is 2.6% below the current market price of $36.40.

The 'crossover price' at expiration is $37.35 ($36.40 + $.95). This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold iShares MSCI China ETF until November 15th (the Nov2013 options expiration date) rather than establishing this covered calls position.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Established Covered Calls Position in Aetna Inc.

Today, a new covered calls position was established in Aetna Inc.  (Ticker Symbol AET).  This AET position was established at the $60.00 strike price and with a Nov2013 expiration. As detailed below, this investment will provide a +1.6% absolute return in 24 days (which is equivalent to a +24.0% annualized return) if the stock closes at or above $60.00 at options expiration on Nov 15th.  The current Greek value of Delta for this option of 65.6% provides a good estimate of the probability that the stock price will be above the $60.00 strike price at Nov2013 options expiration. Thus, the resulting expected value of the annualized ROI for this investment is +15.7% = (+24.0% x 65.6%).

The details of the associated transactions and a potential return-on-investment result are as follows:

Aetna Inc.(AET)
The transactions were as follows:
10/24/2013 Bought 300 AET shares @ $61.61
10/24/2013 Sold 3 AET Nov2013 $60.00 Call Options @ $2.65

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) for these Aetna Inc. covered calls is as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $18,491.95
= ($61.61*300+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$783.80
= 300*$2.65 - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If AET assigned at $60.00) = -$491.95
= ($60.00-$61.61)*300 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If AET assigned at $60.00): +$291.85
= (+$783.80 +$0.00 -$491.95)

Absolute Return if Assigned (at $60.00): +1.6%
= +$291.85/$18,491.95
Annualized Return If Assigned (ARIA): +24.0%
= (+$291.85/$18,491.95)*(365/24 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $58.96 ($61.61 - $2.65), which is 4.3% below the current market price of $61.61.

The 'crossover price' at expiration is $62.65 ($60.00 + $2.65). This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold Aetna until November 15th (the Nov2013 options expiration date) rather than establishing this covered calls position.

Established a 100% Cash-Secured Puts Position in Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

Today, a new 100% cash-secured Puts position was established in Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (Ticker Symbol HTZ) with a Nov2013 expiration and at the $23.00 strike price.  As detailed below, this investment will provide a +3.6% absolute return in 24 days (which is equivalent to a +54.9% annualized return) if the stock closes at or above $23.00 at options expiration on Nov 15th.  The current Greek value of Delta for this option of 57.0% provides a good estimate of the probability that the stock price will be above the $23.00 strike price at Nov2013 options expiration. Thus, the resulting expected value of the annualized ROI for this investment is +31.3% = (+54.9% x 57.0%).

Details of this transaction along with a potential return-on-investment result are: 

Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

The transaction was as follows:
10/24/2013 Sold 7 Hertz (HTZ) Nov2013 $23.00 Put Options @ $.85
Note: the price of HTZ was $23.33 when these Puts were sold.


The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and some potential results shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the seven Put options sold.

A possible overall performance results(including commissions) for this HTZ transaction would be as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $16,100.00
= $23.00*700

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$580.80
= ($.85*700 shares) - $14.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If HTZ remains above $23.00 at Nov2013 expiration): +$0.00
= ($23.00-$23.00)*700 shares

Total Net Profit (If HTZ is above $23.00 strike price at Nov2013 options expiration): +$580.80
= (+$580.80 +$0.00 +$0.00)

Absolute Return (If HTZ above $23.00 at Nov2013 options expiration and Put options thus expire worthless): +3.6%
= +$580.80/$16,100.00
Annualized Return (If stock price above $25.00 at expiration): +54.9%
= (+$580.80/$16,100.00)*(365/24 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $22.15 ($23.00 - $.85), which is 5.1% below the current market price of $23.33.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $24.18 ($23.33 + $.85). This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold Hertz until Nov 15th (the Nov2013 options expiration date) rather than investing in these short Put options.