Saturday, November 21, 2015

November 2015 Option Expiration Results

The Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio (CCAP) contained seven positions with November 2015 expirations.  The results are as follows:

- Six of the seven positions (Capital One Financial Corporation, iShares China Large-Cap ETF, Micron Technology Inc., Time Warner Inc., and two positions in United Continental Holdings Inc.) were closed out at expiration. This was the optimal outcome for these positions in that the maximum potential return-on-investment (ROI) results were achieved for these positions.  The results for these closed positions are:
  • Capital One Financial Corporation = +0.8% absolute return (equivalent to +36.8% annualized return for the 8 days holding period)
  • iShares China Large-Cap ETF = +4.3% absolute return (equivalent to +16.6% annualized return for the 95 days holding period)
  • Micron Technology Inc. = +2.9% absolute return (equivalent to +131.3% annualized return for the 8 days holding period)
  • Time Warner Inc. = +1.6% absolute return (equivalent to +47.9% annualized return for the 12 days holding period)
  • United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL position #1) = +6.0% absolute return (equivalent to +36.9% annualized return for the 59 days holding period)
  • United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL position #2) = +3.4% absolute return (equivalent to +34.3% annualized return for the 36 days holding period)
The transactions history and results for each of these positions is detailed below. The cash available from the closing of these positions will be retained in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio until new covered calls and/or 100% cash-secured puts positions are established.  Any new positions will be posted on this site on the same day they are established.

- One of the seven positions (Cummins Inc.) ended at expiration with the price of the stock below the strike price, so the options expired and the long shares are now retained in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.  A decision will be made soon to either sell these shares or to establish a covered calls position by selling future Call options against the current long stock holding. When this decision is made and the accompanying transaction is completed, a post will be made on this blog on the same day along with the detailed transactions to-date.

Details of the six closed positions summarized above and the associated return-on-investment results are as follows:

1.  Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) -- Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
11/13/2015  Sold 3 COF 100% cash-secured $76.00 Put options @ $.65
Note: the price of COF was $77.12 today when this transaction was executed.
11/20/2015 3 Capital One Nov2015 $76.00 Puts expired
Note: the price of COF was $79.46 upon Nov2015 options expiration

The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and a potential result shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.

The overall performance result (including commissions) was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $22,800.00
= $76.00*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$183.80
= ($.65*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (COF was above $76.00 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($76.00-$76.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (COF was above $76.00 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$183.80
= (+$183.80 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$0.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +0.8%
= +$183.80/$22,800.00
Annualized Return: +36.8%
= (+$183.80/$22,800.00)*(365/8 days)


2. iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) -- Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
08/17/2015 Sold 3 iShares China Large-Cap ETF Sep2015 $38.50 Puts @ $.77
Note 1: The price of FXI was $39.75 when this transaction was executed.
Note 2: The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and a potential result shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.
09/18/2015 3 FXI Sep2015 Put options exercised and 300 shares of FXI purchased at $38.50 strike price
Note: the price of FXI was $36.32 upon Sep2015 options expiration
09/21/2015 Sold 3 FXI $38.00 Oct2015 Call options @ $.73
Note: the price of FXI was $36.91 when this transaction was made.
Roll Out on 10/16/2015:
Bought-to-Close 3 FXI $38.00 Oct2015 Call options @ $1.70
and simultaneously
Sold-to-Open 3 FXI $38.00 Nov2015 Call options @ $2.48
Note: the price of FXI was $39.69 when this roll out transaction was executed, so there was only $.01 [$1.70 - ($39.69 - $38.00)] of time value remaining in the Oct2015 Call options when this roll out transaction occurred.
11/20/2015 3 FXI Call options assigned, so the 300 shares of iShares China Large-Cap ETF were sold at the $38.00 strike price
Note: the price of FXI was $38.47 upon the Nov2015 options expiration


The overall performance result (including commissions) for these transactions was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $11,550.00
= $38.50*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$650.40
= ($.77+$.73-$1.70+$2.48) *300 shares - 3*$11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (FXI was above $38.00 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): -$150.00
= ($38.00-$38.50)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (FXI was above $38.00 strike price upon the Nov2015 options expiration): +$500.40
= (+$650.40 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$150.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return achieved: +4.3%
= +$500.40/$11,550.00
Annualized Return: +16.6%
= (+$500.40/$11,550.00)*(365/95 days)


3.  Micron Technology Inc. (MU) -- Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
11/13//2015  Sold 3 MU 100% cash-secured $15.00 Put options @ $.47
Note: The price of MU was $14.92 when this transaction was executed.
11/20/2015 3 Micron Technology Nov2015 $15.00 Puts expired
Note: the price of MU was $15.43 upon Nov2015 options expiration


The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and some potential results shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.

The performance result (including commissions) was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $4,508.95
= $15.00*300 + $8.95

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$129.80
= ($.47*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (MU was above $15.00 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($17.00-$17.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (MU was above $15.00 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$129.80
= (+$129.80 +$0.00 +$0.00)

Absolute Return: +2.9%
= +$129.80/$4,508.95
Annualized Return: +131.3%
= (+$129.80/$4,508.95)*(365/8 days)


4. Time Warner Inc. (TWX) -- Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
11/09/2015  Sold 3 TWX 100% cash-secured $67.50 Put options @ $1.10
Note: the price of TWX was $68.74 today when this transaction was executed.
11/20/2015 3 Time Warner Inc. Nov2015 $67.50 Puts expired
Note: the price of TWX was $70.72 upon Nov2015 options expiration

The overall performance result (including commissions) was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $20,250.00
= $67.50*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$318.80
= ($1.10*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (TWX was above $67.50 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($67.50-$67.50)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (TWX was above $67.50 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$318.80
= (+$318.80 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$0.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +1.6%
= +$318.80/$20,250.00
Annualized Return: +47.9%
= (+$318.80/$20,250.00)*(365/12 days)


5. United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) -- 1st UAL Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
09/22/2015 Sold 3 UAL Oct2015 $57.50 100% cash-secured Put options @ $1.30
Note: the price of UAL was $59.56 today when this transaction was executed.  The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and a potential result shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.
10/16/2015 3 Put options expired with the stock price below the strike price, so 300 shares of UAL were purchased at the $57.50 strike price.
Note: the price of UAL was $55.97 upon options expiration
10/192015 Sold-to-Open 3 UAL Nov2015 $57.50 Call options @ $2.20
Note: the price of UAL was $56.55 when these options were sold
11/20/2015 3 United Continental Nov2015 $57.50 Puts expired
Note: the price of UAL was $58.81 upon Nov2015 options expiration

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this UAL position was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $17,250.00
= $57.50*300

 Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$1,027.60 = ($1.30 + $2.20)*300 shares) - 2*$11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (UAL was above $57.50 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($57.50-$57.50)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (UAL was above $57.50 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$1,027.60= (+$1,027.60 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$0.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +6.0%= +$1,027.60/$17,250.00
Annualized Return: +36.9%
= (+$1,027.60/$17,250.00)*(365/59 days)


6.  United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) -- 2nd UAL Position Closed
The transactions were as follows:
10/16/2015  Sold 3 UAL 100% cash-secured $55.00 Put options @ $1.90
Note: the price of UAL was $56.67 today when this transaction was executed.
11/20/2015 3 United Continental Nov2015 $55.00 Puts expired
Note: the price of UAL was $58.81 upon Nov2015 options expiration

The overall performance result (including commissions) was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $16,500.00
= $55.00*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$558.80
= ($1.90*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (UAL was above $55.00 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($55.00-$55.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (UAL was above $55.00 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$558.80
= (+$558.80 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$0.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +3.4%
= +$558.80/$16,500.00
Annualized Return: +34.3%
= (+$558.80/$16,500.00)*(365/36 days)

Friday, November 20, 2015

Overall Market Meter Changes from "Neutral" to "Slightly Bearish"

Today, the Covered Calls Advisor recalculated the current values for each of the seven factors used to determine the "Overall Market Meter" rating.  The result is that the Covered Calls Advisor's current market viewpoint changes from Neutral to Slightly Bearish.  A graphical representation of the "Overall Market Meter" is shown in the right sidebar on this page.  Until today, the indicator had remained Neutral throughout 2015.  This proved to be an accurate forecast for the first 11 months this year since the benchmark Russell 3000 Index (ticker symbol IWV) has been neutral so far this year with a net increase of 3.06% (from a closing price of 120.68 on Dec 31, 2014 to 123.74 at today's market close).   

The seven factors used can be categorized as:
- macroeconomic (the first two indicators in the chart below),
- momentum (next two indicators in the chart),
- value (next two indicators), and
- growth (the last indicator).



The current Market Meter average of 2.71 (see blue line at the bottom of the chart above) is in the Slightly Bearish range (Slightly Bearish range is from 2.25 to 2.99). 

As shown in the right sidebar, the covered calls investing strategy corresponding to this overall Slightly Bearish sentiment is to "on-average sell 1% in-the-money covered calls for the next options expiration month".

Your comments or questions regarding this post (or the details related to any of the seven factors used in this model) are welcomed. Please email me at the address shown in the upper-right sidebar.

Regards and Godspeed,
Jeff

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Established Covered Calls Position in Devon Energy Corp.

Today, a covered calls positions was established in Devon Energy Corp (ticker symbol DVN) at the $42.50 strike price and with a Dec2015 expiration.  Devon was purchased at $45.325 and the Call options were sold for $4.05. This investment is a strategic one that explicitly considers the upcoming quarterly dividend with an ex-dividend date on December 11th (prior to the Dec 18th options expiration date).  Details of this position is provided below.

1. Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
A $.24 quarterly dividend goes ex-dividend on December 11th.  Although unlikely, if the current time value (i.e. extrinsic value) of $1.225 [$4.05 option premium - ($45.325 stock price - $42.50 strike price)] remaining in the short call options decay below the $.24 dividend amount by December 10th (the day prior to the ex-div date), then there is a possibility that the call option owner will exercise early and will call the stock away to capture the dividend.

As shown below, two potential return-on-investment results for this position are:
If Early Assignment: +2.5% absolute return (equivalent to +41.2% annualized return for the next 22 days) if the stock is assigned early (day prior to Dec 11th ex-div date); OR
If Dividend Capture:  +3.0% absolute return (equivalent to +36.7% annualized return over the next 30 days) if the stock is assigned at Dec2015 expiration on December 18th.

11/19/2015 Bought 200 DVN shares @ $45.325
11/19/2015 Sold 2 DVN Dec2015 $42.50 Call options @ $4.05
12/11/2015 Upcoming ex-dividend of $.24 per share

Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) for this Devon covered calls position are as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $9,073.95
= ($45.325*200+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$799.55
= ($4.05*200 shares) - $10.45 commissions
(b) Dividend Income (If option exercised early on day prior to Dec 11th ex-div date): +$0.00; or
(b) Dividend Income (If stock assigned at Dec2015 expiration): +$48.00
= ($.24 dividend per share x 200 shares); or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock assigned early on Dec 10th): -$573.95
+($42.50-$45.325)*200 - $8.95 commissions; or
(c) Capital Appreciation (If stock assigned at $42.50 at Dec2015 expiration): -$573.95
+($42.50-$45.325)*200 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If option exercised on day prior to Dec 11th ex-div date): +$225.60
= (+$799.55 +$0.00 -$573.95); or
Total Net Profit (If stock assigned at $42.50 at Dec2015 expiration): +$273.60
= (+$799.55 +$48.00 -$573.95)

1. Absolute Return (If option exercised on day prior to ex-div date): +2.5%
= +$225.60/$9,073.95
Annualized Return (If option exercised early): +41.2%
= (+$225.60/$9,073.95)*(365/22 days); OR

2. Absolute Return (If stock assigned at $42.50 at Dec2015 expiration): +3.0%
= +$273.60/$9,073.95
Annualized Return (If stock assigned): +36.7%
= (+$273.60/$9,073.95)*(365/30 days)

As is often the case, early assignment provides a higher annualized return, so this is the Covered Calls Advisor's preferred outcome; but either outcome would provide a very attractive return-on-investment.  These returns will be achieved as long as the stock is above the $42.50 strike price at assignment.  If the stock declines below the strike price, the breakeven price of $41.275 ($45.325 -$4.05) provides a substantial 8.9% downside protection from today's purchase price.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Established New Position in Capital One Financial

Today, the Covered Calls Advisor established a new position in Capital One Financial Corporation (ticker symbol COF) by selling three Nov2015 Put options at the $76.00 strike price. This position is a conservative one since it was established with 1.5% downside protection to the strike price.

As detailed below, the Capital One Financial investment will yield a +0.8% absolute return in 8 days (which is equivalent to a +36.8% annualized return-on-investment) if COF closes above the $76.00 strike price on the Nov2015 options expiration date. 

This potential return is very nice given the downside protection (from the $77.12 stock price to the $76.00 strike price) when the position was established.  The implied volatility in the options was 25 when this position was established; so the $.65 price per share received when the Puts were sold is a nice premium to receive for us option sellers.     

1.  Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) -- New Position
The transaction was as follows:
11/13/2015  Sold 3 COF 100% cash-secured $76.00 Put options @ $.65
Note: The price of COF was $77.12 today when this transaction was executed.

The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and a potential result shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) would be as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $22,800.00
= $76.00*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$183.80
= ($.65*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If COF is above $76.00 strike price at Nov2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($76.00-$76.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (If COF is above $76.00 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +$183.80
= (+$183.80 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$0.00 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return (If COF is above $76.00 strike price at Nov2015 options expiration): +0.8%
= +$183.80/$22,800.00
Annualized Return: +36.8%
= (+$183.80/$22,800.00)*(365/8 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $75.35 ($76.00 - $.65), which is 2.3% below the current market price of $77.12.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $77.77 ($77.12 + $.65).  This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold COF until Nov 20th (the Nov2015 options expiration date) rather than selling these Put options.