Friday, March 13, 2015

Established Covered Calls Position -- BP Plc ADR

Today, a new covered calls position was established in BP Plc ADR (ticker symbol BP).  Two hundred shares of BP were purchased at $37.22 and two in-the-money Apr2015 Call options were sold at the $36.00 strike price for $1.92 each.

As shown below, this investment will provide a +1.6% absolute return in 37 days (which is equivalent to a +16.0% annualized return) if BP stock closes above the $36.00 strike price on the April 17th options expiration date.

This potential return-on-investment result is attractive to us option sellers for a relatively conservative investment -- there is 3.3% downside protection (from the current $37.22 stock price to the $36.00 strike price).  The implied volatility in the options was 29.5 when this position was established and there is no quarterly earnings report prior to April 17th. 

The details of the associated transactions and a potential return-on-investment result are as follows:

1. BP Plc ADR (BP)
The transactions were as follows:
03/13/2015 Bought 200 BP shares @ $37.22
03/13/2015 Sold 2 BP Apr2015 $36.00 Call Options @ $1.92
Note: the price of BP was $37.22 today when these options were sold.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) for these BP Plc ADR covered calls is as follows:
Stock Purchase Cost: $7,452.95
= ($37.22*200+$8.95 commission)

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$373.55
= 200*$1.92 - $10.45 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If BP assigned at $36.00) = -$252.95
= ($36.00-$37.22)*200 - $8.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (If BP assigned at $36.00): +$120.60
= (+$373.55 +$0.00 -$252.95)

Absolute Return if Assigned (at $36.00 strike price): +1.6%
= +$120.60/$7,452.95
Annualized Return If Assigned (ARIA): +16.0%
= (+$120.60/$7,452.95)*(365/37 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $35.30 ($37.22 - $1.92), which is 5.2% below the current market price of $37.22.
Using the Black-Scholes Options Pricing Model in the Schwab Hypothetical Options Pricing calculator, the resulting probability of making a profit (if held until Apr2015 options expiration) for this BP covered calls position is 63.0%. This compares with a probability of profit of 50.2% for a buy-and-hold of BP over the same time period. Using this probability of profit of 63.0%, the Expected Value annualized ROI of this investment (if held until expiration) is +10.0% (+16.0% * 63.0%).

The 'crossover price' at expiration is $39.14 ($37.22 + $1.92). This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold BP stock until April 17th (the Apr2015 options expiration date) rather than establish this covered calls position.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Established New Positions in iShares China Large-Cap ETF, VeriFone Systems Inc., and VMware Inc.

The Covered Calls Advisor established three short 100% cash-secured Puts positions in iShares China Large-Cap ETF (ticker symbol FXI), VeriFone Systems Inc. (ticker symbol PAY), and VMware Inc. (ticker symbol VMW).  All three positions were established with a March 2015 options expiration date.  The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on these positions and some potential return-on-investment results shown below reflect the fact that these positions were established using 100% cash securitization for the Put options sold.
  • The iShares China Large-Cap ETF investment will yield a +1.5% absolute return in 10 days (which is equivalent to a +55.4% annualized return-on-investment) if FXI closes above the $41.00 strike price on the Mar2015 options expiration date. 
  • The VeriFone Systems Inc. investment will yield a +1.4% absolute return in 11 days (which is equivalent to a +48.0% annualized return-on-investment) if PAY closes above the $32.00 strike price on the Mar2015 options expiration date. 
  • The VMware Inc. investment will yield a +1.2% absolute return in 10 days (which is equivalent to a +45.5% annualized return-on-investment) if VMW closes above the $80.00 strike price on the Mar2015 options expiration date. 
 The details for each of these positions is as follows:

1.  iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) -- New Position
The transaction was as follows:
03/11/2015  Sold 3 FXI Mar2015 $41.00 100% cash-secured Put options @ $.66
Note: The price of FXI was $40.85 when this transaction was executed.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) would be as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $12,300.00
= $41.00*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$186.80
= ($.66*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If FXI is above $41.00 strike price at Mar2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($41.00-$41.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (If FXI is above $41.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +$186.80
= (+$186.80 +$0.00 +$0.00)

Absolute Return (If FXI is above $41.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +1.5%
= +$186.80/$12,300.00
Annualized Return: +55.4%
= (+$186.80/$12,300.00)*(365/10 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $40.34 ($41.00 - $.66), which is 1.5% below the current market price of $40.85.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $41.51 ($40.85 + $.66).  This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold FXI until March 20th (the Mar2015 options expiration date) rather than selling these Put options.


2.  VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) -- New Position
The transaction was as follows:
03/10/2015  Sold 3 PAY Mar2015 $32.00 100% cash-secured Put options @ $.50
Note: The price of PAY was $33.72 when this transaction was executed.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) would be as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $9,600.00
= $32.00*300

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$138.80
= ($.50*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If PAY is above $32.00 strike price at Mar2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($32.00-$32.00)*300 shares

Total Net Profit (If PAY is above $32.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +$138.80
= (+$138.80 +$0.00 +$0.00)

Absolute Return (If PAY is above $32.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +1.4%
= +$138.80/$9,600.00
Annualized Return (If PAY is above $32.00 at expiration): +48.0%
= (+$138.80/$9,600.00)*(365/11 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $31.50 ($32.00 - $.50), which is 6.6% below the current market price of $33.72.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $34.22 ($33.72 + $.50).  This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold PAY until March 20th (the Mar2015 options expiration date) rather than selling these Put options.


3.  VMware Inc. (VMW) -- New Position
The transaction was as follows:
03/11/2015  Sold 2 VMW Mar2015 $80.00 100% cash-secured Put options @ $1.05
Note: The price of VMW was $80.82 when this transaction was executed.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) would be as follows: 100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $16,000.00
= $80.00*200

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$199.55
= ($1.05*200 shares) - $10.45 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If VMW is above $80.00 strike price at Mar2015 expiration): +$0.00
= ($80.00-$80.00)*200 shares

Total Net Profit (If VMW is above $80.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +$199.55
= (+$199.55 +$0.00 +$0.00)

Absolute Return (If VMW is above $80.00 strike price at Mar2015 options expiration): +1.2%
= +$199.55/$16,000.00
Annualized Return: +45.5%
= (+$199.55/$16,000.00)*(365/10 days)

The downside 'breakeven price' at expiration is at $78.95 ($80.00 - $1.05), which is 2.3% below the current market price of $80.82.
The 'crossover price' at expiration is $81.87 ($80.82 + $1.05).  This is the price above which it would have been more profitable to simply buy-and-hold VMW until March 20th (the Mar2015 options expiration date) rather than selling these Put options.


4. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)  -- Closed

The transactions were as follows:
01/14/2015 Sold 1 Alibaba Group ADR Feb2015 $95.00 Put @ $3.00
Note: The price of BABA was $98.55 today when this transaction was executed.
02/20/2015 BABA closed below strike price and 100 shares BABA purchased at $95.00 strike price 
02/26/2015 Sold 100 Alibaba shares @ $86.83

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this transaction was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $9,500.00
= $95.00*100
Note:  the price of  BABA was $98.55 when this Put option was sold.

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$292.30
= ($3.00*100 shares) - $9.70 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation: -$817.00
= ($86.83-$95.00)*100 shares

Total Net Profit: -$524.70
= (+$292.30 +$0.00 -$817.00)

Absolute Return: -5.5%
= -$524.70/$9,500.00
Annualized Return: -46.9%
= (-$524.70/$9,500.00)*(365/43 days)

Monday, March 9, 2015

Delta Air Lines Inc. Position Closed

The March 6, 2015 weekly covered calls position in Delta Air Lines Inc. expired last Friday with the stock below the $44.00 strike price.  Today, the position was closed out by selling the 300 shares in the Covered Calls Advisor portfolio.  The position was closed out since there is already an existing short Puts position with Delta in the portfolio with a Mar2015 expiration and at the $44.00 strike price.

As detailed below, this closed investment yielded a +1.3% absolute return in 10 days (which is equivalent to a +46.7% annualized return-on-investment).  The associated transactions and financial results are:

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) -- Closed
The transactions were as follows:
02/27/2015 Sold 3 Delta Air Lines Inc. Mar 6, 2015 $44.00 Puts @ $.69
Note: The price of DAL was $45.35 when this transaction was executed.
03/06/2015 3 DAL Puts assigned, so 300 shares of DAL purchased at $44.00 strike price
Note: the price of Delta was $43.78 upon Friday's option expiration
03/09/2015 Sold 300 Delta Air Lines Inc. stock at $43.94

The Covered Calls Advisor does not use margin, so the detailed information on this position and the results shown below reflect the fact that this position was established using 100% cash securitization for the three Put options sold.

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this transaction was as follows:
100% Cash-Secured Cost Basis: $13,200.00
= $44.00*300
Note:  the price of DAL was $43.78 when these Put options were assigned.

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$195.80
= ($.69*300 shares) - $11.20 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation: -$26.95
= ($43.94-$44.00)*300 shares - $8.95 commission

Total Net Profit: +$168.85
= (+$195.80 +$0.00 -$26.95)

Absolute Return: +1.3%
= +$168.85/$13,200.00
Annualized Return: +46.7%
= (+$177.80/$13,200.00 )*(365/10 days)

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Short Weekly Puts Position in Delta Air Lines, Inc. is Assigned

The Covered Calls Advisor's 100% cash-secured Puts position in Delta Air Lines Inc. (ticker symbol DAL) ended at the market close yesterday with the price of Delta stock at $43.78, which was below the $44.00 strike price.  Therefore, the three short Puts were assigned and 300 shares of DAL have now been purchased at the $44.00 strike price.  A decision will be made early next week to either sell these shares or to establish a Mar2015 covered calls position by selling three Call options against the 300 shares now owned. When a trade is made, it will be posted on this blog site on the same day that it occurs along with the details of this DAL position to-date.