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Thursday, April 25, 2019

Position Closed in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.

Last Thursday, the April 18th, 2019 Covered Calls position in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (ticker symbol BMY) expired with the stock price below the $46.00 strike price -- so the Call options expired and the 1,000 shares were retained in the Covered Calls Advisor's Portfolio.  This morning, Bristol-Myers reported 1st quarter 2019 earnings and revenues that exceeded both last year's numbers and analysts' expectations for this quarter's results.  Bristol-Myers also confirmed their full-year 2019 outlook.  The stock moved higher today and the position was closed out by selling the 1,000 shares at $45.565.

As detailed below, this  Bristol-Myers position achieved a return-on-investment result of +1.6% absolute return in 41 days (equivalent to a +14.6% annualized return-on-investment).

1. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. -- BMY Covered Calls Position Closed
The buy/write transaction was:
03/15/2019 Bought 1,000 Bristol-Myers shares @ $49.08
03/15/2019 Sold 10 BMY 4/18/2019 $46.00 Call options @ $3.85
Note: the Open Interest in these Call options was 1,450 contracts (sufficiently liquid for a tight bid/ask price spread) and the Implied Volatility was 36.4 when this transaction was executed.
04/04/2019 Quarterly ex-dividend of $410.00 = $.41 per share x 1,000 shares
04/18/2019 10 BMY 4/18/2019 $46.00 Call options expired
Note: the price of BMY was $45.52 at options expiration.
04/25/2019 Sold 1,000 BMY shares at $45.565 per share

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this Bristol-Myers Covered Calls position are as follows:
Covered Calls Cost Basis: $45,241.65
= ($49.08 - $3.85) * 1,000 shares + $11.65 commissions

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$3,850.00
= ($3.85*1,000 shares)

(b) Dividend Income: +$410.00
= ($.41 dividend per share x 1,000 shares)
(c) Capital Appreciation (1,000 BMY share sold at $45.565 per share): -$3,519.95
+($45.565 - $49.08)*1,000 shares - $4.95 commissions

Total Net Profit: +$740.05
= (+$3,850.00 options income +$410.00 dividend income -$3,519.95 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +1.6%
= +$740.05/$45,241.65
Annualized Return (If BMY stock assigned at $46.00 at Apr 18, 2018 expiration): +14.6%
= (+$740.05/$45,241.65)*(365/41 days)

Monday, April 22, 2019

Continuation of Covered Call Position in UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Upon the April 18th, 2019 options expiration last Thursday, the Covered Call position in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (ticker symbol UNH) expired with the stock price below the $230.00 strike price.  So, the April Call option expired and the 100 shares of UnitedHealth Group stock were retained in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.  Today, with the price of UNH stock at $225.30, a sell-to-open order was executed to sell one May 3rd, 2019 Call at the $230.00 strike price for $3.25 per share to continue this Covered Call position.

Last week, UnitedHealth Group had a very positive first quarter earnings report that exceeded analysts' estimates on both revenue and earnings per share.  In addition, they confirmed and slightly raised their full-year earnings estimate.  The recent sharp decline in the stock resulted from the Medicare-for-All proposal espoused by Bernie Sanders.  It is likely that UNH (and other managed care companies' stocks) will rebound soon as greater understanding that passing legislation related to this idea is extremely unlikely.   
 
As detailed below, a potential return-on-investment for this position is: 
(a) +1.1% absolute return in 38 days (equivalent to a +10.2% annualized return-on-investment) if the UNH stock price is unchanged at $225.30 per share; OR 
(b) +3.1% absolute return in 38 days (equivalent to a +30.1% annualized return-on-investment) if the stock closes above the $230.00 strike price.


UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) -- Continuation of Covered Calls Position
The transaction today was as follows:
03/27/2019  Bought 100 shares UnitedHealth Group @ $239.44
03/27/2019 Sold 1 UNH April 18, 2019 $230.00 Call option @ $13.39
Note: this was a simultaneous Buy/Write transaction.
04/18/2019 One UNH April 18th $230.00 Call option expired with the UNH stock price at $221.75 (below the $230.00 strike price)
04/22/2019 Sold 1 UnitedHealth Group May 3rd, 2019 $230.00 Call option @ $3.25
Note: the price of UnitedHealth Group stock was $225.30 when this Call were sold and its Implied Volatility was 30.4

Two possible overall performance results (including commissions) would be as follows:
Covered Call Cost Basis: $22,610.62
= ($239.44 - $13.39) * 100 shares + $5.62 commission

Net Profit:
(a) Option Income: +$1,658.38
= ($13.39 +$3.25) * 100 shares - $5.62 commission
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares are unchanged at $225.30 at the May 3rd options expiration): -$1,418.95
= ($225.30-$239.44) * 100 shares - $4.95 commission; OR
(c) Capital Appreciation (If UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares are above $230.00 strike price at May 3rd options expiration): -$948.95
= ($230.00-$239.44) * 100 shares - $4.95 commission

1. Total Net Profit (If UnitedHealth Group stock price is unchanged at $225.30 at the May 3rd, 2019 options expiration date): +$239.43; OR
= (+$1,658.38 option income +$0.00 dividend income -$1,418.95 capital appreciation)
2. Total Net Profit (If UnitedHealth Group stock price is above $230.00 strike price at the May 3rd, 2019 options expiration date): +$709.43
= (+$1,658.38 option income +$0.00 dividend income -$948.95 capital appreciation)

1. Absolute Return (If UnitedHealth Group stock price is unchanged at $225.30 at the May 3rd options expiration): +1.1%
= +$239.43/$22,610.62
Annualized Return: +10.2%
= (+$239.43/$22,610.62)*(365/38 days); OR
2. Absolute Return (If UnitedHealth Group stock price is above $230.00 strike price at the May 3rd options expiration): +3.1%
= +$709.43/$22,610.62
Annualized Return: +30.1%
= (+$709.43/$22,610.62)*(365/38 days)


Friday, April 19, 2019

April 18th, 2019 Options Expiration Results

The Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio had seven Covered Call positions since the March 15th, 2019 monthly options expiration date.  Six positions had expiration dates of April 18th and one expired on March 29th.
  • Medtronic PLC was the position with the March 29th expiration.  This Covered Call position was closed with the share price in-the-money, thus the shares were assigned (sold) at the strike price.  The detailed results for this position were posted previously -- See link
  • During the last hour of trading on the April 18th expiration date, three in-the-money positions [Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (Position #1), Alphabet Inc., and Baidu Inc.) were rolled out to May 17th, 2019 Covered Call positions.  The transactions-to-date for these positions are detailed in Section A below.
  • Two Covered Call positions (Bristol Myers Inc. and UnitedHealth Care Inc.) closed out-of-the-money (stock price below the strike price) at the April 18th, 2019 options expiration.  So, the Call options expired and the respective shares remain in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.  Decisions will be made soon to either sell the shares or to continue the Covered Calls positions by selling May 17th, 2019 Call options against the shares currently held.  The detailed transactions will be posted on this blog site on the same day that these transactions occur.       
  • One Covered Call position (Boeing Inc.) closed in-the-money so those shares were assigned (sold) at the strike price.  The return-on-investment result for this Boeing position is detailed in Section B below.  The cash now available in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio from the closing of this position will be retained until new Covered Calls and/or 100% Cash-Secured Puts positions are established.    

All 25 positions that have been closed out so far in 2019 achieved a profit.  The weighted average annualized return on investment for these 25 positions is +67.9%.  As shown in the right sidebar, there are now five open positions in the Covered Calls Advisor Portfolio.  All future transactions will continue to be posted on this site on the same day they occur.  As always, please email me at the address shown in the right sidebar with any questions or comments related to this Covered Calls Advisor blog.


Section A -- Rolled Out Three Covered Call Positions -- (Alibaba, Alphabet Inc., and Baidu Inc.)


1.  Alibaba (BABA) -- Continuing Covered Calls Position
The transactions were as follows:
01/01/2019 200 BABA shares owned at $137.07 per share
01/07/2019 2 Jan 18, 2019 $145.00 short Call options sold at $2.09 per share
01/18/2019 Bought-to-Close 2 Jan 18th $145.00 Calls @ $11.22
01/18/2019 Sold-to-Open 2 Feb 15th, 2019 $155.00 Calls @ $7.47
Note: the price of BABA stock was $156.24 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.
02/15/2019 Bought-to-Close 2 Feb 15th $155.00 Calls @ $11.15
02/15/2019 Sold-to-Open 2 Mar 15th, 2019 $160.00 Calls @ $9.05
Note: the price of BABA stock was $166.10 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.
03/15/2019 Bought-to-Close 2 Mar 15th $160.00 Calls @ $20.34
03/15/2019 Sold-to-Open 2 Apr 18th, 2019 $170.00 Calls @ $12.51
Note: the price of BABA stock was $180.29 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.
04/18/2019 Bought-to-Close 2 Apr 18th $170.00 Calls @ $16.79
04/18/2019 Sold-to-Open 2 May 17th, 2019 $175.00 Calls @ $14.45
Note: the price of BABA stock was $186.77 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) if this in-the-money position is assigned at the May 17th expiration is as follows:
Cost Basis: $27,414.00
= $137.07 per share value at end of December, 2018 * 200 shares

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: -$2,821.50
= ($2.09 - $11.22 + $7.47 - $11.15 + $9.05 -$20.34 +$12.51 -$16.79 +$14.45) * 200 shares - $35.50 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00 
(c) Capital Appreciation (If BABA stock is above $175.00 strike price at May 17th expiration): +$7,581.05
= ($175.00 -$137.07) * 200 shares - $4.95 commission

Total Net Profit: +$4,759.55
= (-$2,821.50 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$7,581.05 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +17.4%
= +$4,759.55/$27,414.00
Equivalent Annualized Return: +46.3%
= (+$4,759.55/$27,414.00)*(365/137 days)


2.  Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) -- Continuing Covered Call Position
The transactions have been as follows:
01/01/2019 100 GOOGL shares owned at $1,044.96 per share
01/01/2019 1 Jan 18th, 2019 $1,085.00 short Call option valued at $19.80 per share
01/18/2019  Bought-to-Close 1 Jan 18th $1,085.00 Call option @ $19.25
01/18/2019 Sold-to-Open 1 Feb 15th, 2019 $1,095.00 Call @ $41.70
Note: the price of GOOGL stock was $1,104.73 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.
02/15/2019 Bought-to-Close 1 Feb 15th $1,095.00 Call @ $22.40
02/15/2019 Sold-to-Open 1 Mar 15th, 2019 $1,090.00 Call @ $44.50
Note: the price of GOOGL stock was $1,117.25 when this roll out and down transaction occurred.
03/15/2019 Bought-to-Close 1 Mar 15th $1,090.00 Call @ $98.82
03/15/2019 Sold-to-Open 1 April 18th, 2019 $1,130.00 Call @ $69.72
Note: the price of GOOGL stock was $1,188.50 when this roll out and up transaction occurred.
04/18/2019 Bought-to-Close 1 Apr 18th $1,130.00 Calls @ $111.40
04/18/2019 Sold-to-Open 1 May 17th, 2019 $1,160.00 Calls @ $91.90
A possible overall performance result (including commissions) if this in-the-money position is assigned at the May 17th expiration is as follows:
Cost Basis: $104,496.00
= $1,044.96 per share value at end of December, 2018 * 100 shares

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$1,250.46
= (+$19.80 - $19.25 + $41.70 - $22.40 + $44.50 -$98.82 +$69.72 - $111.40 + $91.90) * 100 shares - $24.54 commissions
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00 
(c) Capital Appreciation (If GOOGL stock is above $1,160.00 strike price at May 17th expiration): +$11,499.05
= ($1,160.00 -$1,044.96) * 100 shares - $4.95 commission

Total Net Profit: +$12,749.51
= (+$1,250.46 options income +$0.00 dividend income +$11,499.05 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +12.2%
= +$12,749.51/$104,496.00
Equivalent Annualized Return: +32.5%
= (+$12,749.51/$104,496.00)*(365/137 days)


3. Baidu Inc. (BIDU) -- Continuing Covered Call Position
The transactions are as follows:
03/20/2019  Bought 100 shares of BIDU @ $168.69
03/20/2019 Sold 1 BIDU April 18, 2019 $165.00 Call option @ $7.35
Note: this was a simultaneous Buy/Write transaction.
04/18/2019 Bought-to-Close 1 Apr 18th $165.00 Call @ $6.30
04/18/2019 Sold-to-Open 1 May 17th, 2019 $165.00 Call @ $10.70
Note: the price of BIDU stock was $171.24 when this roll out transaction occurred.

A possible overall performance result (including commissions) would be as follows:
Covered Call Cost Basis: $16,128.38
= ($168.69 - $7.35) * 100 shares + $5.62 commission

Net Profit:
(a) Options Income: +$1,169.38
= ($7.35 - $6.30 + $10.70) * 100 shares) - $5.62 commission
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (If Baidu shares are above $165.00 strike price at May 17th expiration): -$373.95
= ($165.00 - $168.69) * 100 shares - $4.95 commission

Total Net Profit (If Baidu stock price is above $165.00 strike price at May 17th options expiration): +$795.43
= (+$1,169.38 options income +$0.00 dividend income -$373.95 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return (If Baidu stock price is above $165.00 strike price at April 18th options expiration): +4.9%
= +$795.43/$16,128.38
Equivalent Annualized Return: +30.5%
= (+$361.05/$16,128.38)*(365/59 days)


Section B -- Covered Calls Position in Boeing Inc. Assigned (Closed Out) at April 18th Options Expiration


Boeing Inc. -- Covered Call Position Closed
The buy/write transactions was: 
03/13/2019 Bought 100 Boeing shares @ $375.72
03/13/2019 Sold 1 Boeing 04/18/2019 $350.00 Call option @ $35.47
Note: the Open Interest in the Apr 18th $350.00 Calls was sufficiently liquid at 641 contracts.
04/18/2019  1 Boeing Apr 18th, 2019 $350.00 Call option expired in-the-money, so 100 shares of BA stock sold at $350.00 strike price

The overall performance result (including commissions) for this Boeing Co. Covered Call position was as follows:
Covered Call Cost Basis: $34,030.62
= ($375.72 - $35.47) *100 + $5.62 commission

Net Profit Components:
(a) Options Income: +$3,547.00
= ($35.47*100 shares)
(b) Dividend Income: +$0.00
(c) Capital Appreciation (BA shares assigned at $350.00 strike price at April 18th options expiration): -$2,576.95
+($350.00-$375.72)*100 shares - $4.95 commissions

Total Net Profit (BA shares assigned at $350.00 at Apr 18th, 2019 expiration): +$970.05
= (+$3,547.00 option income +$0.00 dividend income -$2,576.95 capital appreciation)

Absolute Return: +2.9%
= +$970.05/$34,030.62
Annualized Return: +28.1%
= (+$970.05/$34,030.62)*(365/37 days)

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Are We Near a Stock Market Top?

My short answer to this question is "very likely YES".

Consider these three economic metrics: (1) Overall Market Value; (2) Consumer Confidence; and (3) Corporate Profit Margins.  The historical charts below show the ups and downs in each over many decades.  Please give your thoughtful consideration to each chart.

The current 10-year long bull market has lasted longer than most.  We cannot know when we will experience another bear market, but each of these three metrics tend to revert-to-the-mean when they reach high and low extremes.  Since all three metrics are now very near all-time highs, it is likely that the best we can expect for the rest of 2019 would be a sideways market.  But we should also be prepared for the next bear market, which could begin at any time now.  Fortunately, a disciplined Covered Calls investing process enables us to substantially outperform the overall stock market in either sideways or bearish markets. 

As always, please write me (see right sidebar for email address) if you have any thoughts or questions about this post, including the 3 charts shown below.
  
  1. Overall Market Value -- Warren Buffett's favorite indicator is Total Stock Market-to-GDP Ratio, which is very close to an all-time high.



       2. Consumer Confidence -- Near a 50-year high (only higher during the Tech Bubble of 1999).



       3. Corporate Profit Margins -- This chart shows that when hourly earnings have been rising (inverted on the chart below), corporate profit margins will invariably decline (with a 2-Year lag).